Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 36.59%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 34.41% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (11.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
