Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 54%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 20.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.13%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
