SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Fenix |
54.54% ( 0.01) | 25.28% ( -0.01) | 20.19% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 45.39% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.7% ( 0.03) | 56.3% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.67% ( 0.03) | 77.33% ( -0.03) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.34% ( 0.02) | 20.66% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.76% ( 0.03) | 53.24% ( -0.03) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.21% ( 0.02) | 42.79% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.88% ( 0.02) | 79.11% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 13.94% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.99% 2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.78% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.91% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.28% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.93% ( 0)Other @ 3.29% Total : 54.53% | 1-1 @ 11.83% 0-0 @ 8.84% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.96% ( 0)Other @ 0.64% Total : 25.27% | 0-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.02% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.42% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.9% Other @ 1.03% Total : 20.19% |
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