SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.86%) and 1-2 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Nacional |
18.76% ( 0.29) | 26.41% ( 0.19) | 54.83% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 40.55% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.42% ( -0.29) | 61.58% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.57% ( -0.22) | 81.42% ( 0.22) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.46% ( 0.18) | 47.53% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.11% ( 0.13) | 82.89% ( -0.13) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.29% ( -0.33) | 22.71% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.62% ( -0.49) | 56.38% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.22% Total : 18.76% | 1-1 @ 11.9% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 10.79% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 3.28% ( 0)Other @ 0.43% Total : 26.4% | 0-1 @ 16% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 11.86% ( -0.1)1-2 @ 8.82% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 5.86% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.36% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.52% Total : 54.83% |
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