SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.67%) and 1-2 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Nacional |
18.58% ( -0.2) | 25.06% ( -0.12) | 56.35% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 43.6% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.62% ( 0.16) | 57.38% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.8% ( 0.13) | 78.2% ( -0.13) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.74% ( -0.14) | 45.26% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.86% ( -0.11) | 81.14% ( 0.11) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.64% ( 0.19) | 20.36% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.23% ( 0.31) | 52.76% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.58% Total : 18.58% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.21% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.56% Total : 25.06% | 0-1 @ 14.66% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 11.67% ( 0.07)1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.19% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.91% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 2.46% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.3% Total : 56.35% |
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