SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 53.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 19.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.48%) and 1-2 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
19.68% ( -0.91) | 26.64% ( -0.27) | 53.68% ( 1.19) |
| Both teams to score 41.26% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.64% ( 0.01) | 61.36% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.74% ( 0.01) | 81.26% ( -0.01) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.67% ( -1.01) | 46.33% ( 1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.02% ( -0.79) | 81.98% ( 0.79) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.88% ( 0.53) | 23.12% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.02% ( 0.77) | 56.98% ( -0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.24) 2-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.2)2-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.44% Total : 19.68% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 10.71% 2-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.46% Total : 26.63% | 0-1 @ 15.68% ( 0.23) 0-2 @ 11.48% ( 0.34)1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.61% ( 0.25)1-3 @ 4.31% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 2.05% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.46% Total : 53.67% |
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