SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.12%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 17.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.8%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Fenix |
59.12% ( -0.04) | 23.55% ( 0.02) | 17.32% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 45.53% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.4% ( -0.05) | 53.6% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.9% ( -0.04) | 75.1% ( 0.04) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.13% ( -0.03) | 17.87% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.36% ( -0.06) | 48.63% ( 0.06) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.44% ( -0) | 44.56% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.42% ( -0) | 80.58% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 13.71% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 11.8% 2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.48% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.35% Total : 59.12% | 1-1 @ 11.08% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0)Other @ 0.65% Total : 23.55% | 0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.48% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.6% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.21% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 1.56% Total : 17.32% |
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