SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 57.62%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 20.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.85%) and 0-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Nacional win it was 2-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Braga |
20.35% ( -0.04) | 22.02% ( -0.01) | 57.62% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 55.47% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.98% ( -0.02) | 43.01% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.58% ( -0.02) | 65.41% ( 0.02) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.01% ( -0.05) | 34.99% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.27% ( -0.05) | 71.73% ( 0.06) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.32% ( 0.01) | 14.68% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.16% ( 0.02) | 42.84% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.39% ( -0)2-0 @ 2.83% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 20.35% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.14% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.02% | 1-2 @ 9.93% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 9.45% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 6.35% ( 0)0-3 @ 6.05% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.34% ( -0)1-4 @ 3.05% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.6% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.17% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 2.83% Total : 57.62% |
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