SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 52.44%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.46%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Adelaide United |
27.08% ( -1.22) | 20.48% ( -0.31) | 52.44% ( 1.54) |
| Both teams to score 69.89% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.09% ( 0.57) | 27.92% ( -0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.36% ( 0.71) | 48.64% ( -0.7) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.68% ( -0.43) | 21.32% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.73% ( -0.67) | 54.27% ( 0.67) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.83% ( 0.62) | 11.17% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.34% ( 1.35) | 35.66% ( -1.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.22) 1-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.16)2-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.24% ( -0.08)4-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.52% Total : 27.08% | 1-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 2.57% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.63% Total : 20.48% | 1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 6.46% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.09)0-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 4.99% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 4.18% ( 0.17)1-4 @ 3.54% ( 0.18)2-4 @ 2.74% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 2.29% ( 0.15)1-5 @ 1.55% ( 0.12)3-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.04)2-5 @ 1.2% ( 0.08)0-5 @ 1% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.3% Total : 52.44% |
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