While it is still early days in Norwich's season, the signs are there that improvements have been made under Wagner. Millwall have the qualities to earn a share of the spoils at Carrow Road, yet we feel that the home side will battle their way to another three points in front of their own supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Millwall win was 0-1 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
0.44) 
-0.68) 
