Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 60.13%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 17.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Palmeiras in this match.
0.2) 
-0.22) 
