Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Peterborough United had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Peterborough United win was 1-0 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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