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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Preston North End had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Preston North End win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Preston North End | Draw | Derby County |
33.8% ( 0.31) | 26.72% ( 0.13) | 39.47% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 51.53% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.53% ( -0.47) | 53.46% ( 0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.01% ( -0.4) | 74.99% ( 0.4) |
| Preston North End Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.12% ( -0.03) | 29.88% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.02% ( -0.04) | 65.97% ( 0.04) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.49% ( -0.45) | 26.5% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.3% ( -0.61) | 61.7% ( 0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Preston North End | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 9.57% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.78% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 2.38% Total : 33.8% | 1-1 @ 12.7% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.72% | 0-1 @ 10.51% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.2% Total : 39.47% |
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