SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
39.87% ( -0.45) | 26.01% ( 0.18) | 34.11% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 53.89% ( -0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.52% ( -0.71) | 50.48% ( 0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.59% ( -0.63) | 72.4% ( 0.63) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.07% ( -0.55) | 24.92% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.45% ( -0.77) | 59.55% ( 0.77) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.78% ( -0.18) | 28.21% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.08% ( -0.23) | 63.91% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
| 1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 6.79% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.98% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.61% Total : 39.87% | 1-1 @ 12.36% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.01% | 0-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.76% Total : 34.12% |
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