Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 35.79%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 34.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.35%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 (12.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
