SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 59.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 16.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.22%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.13%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 0-1 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
59.29% ( 0.17) | 23.91% ( -0.05) | 16.8% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 43.63% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.37% ( -0.02) | 55.62% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.21% ( -0.02) | 76.78% ( 0.01) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.44% ( 0.06) | 18.55% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.19% ( 0.1) | 49.81% ( -0.1) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.57% ( -0.17) | 46.42% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.95% ( -0.13) | 82.05% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
| 1-0 @ 14.51% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 12.22% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.27% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.96% Total : 59.29% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.61% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.56% Total : 23.9% | 0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.37% Total : 16.8% |
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