SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 36.24%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (11.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | River Plate |
36.24% ( -0.29) | 28.65% ( 0.01) | 35.1% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 45.86% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.37% ( -0.02) | 60.62% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.29% ( -0.01) | 80.71% ( 0.02) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.09% ( -0.19) | 31.91% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.64% ( -0.22) | 68.36% ( 0.22) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.35% ( 0.17) | 32.65% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.8% ( 0.19) | 69.2% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 11.9% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.8% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.83% Total : 36.24% | 1-1 @ 13.32% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.41% 2-2 @ 4.26% ( -0)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.64% | 0-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.65% Total : 35.1% |
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