SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 38.06%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Progreso win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boston River in this match.
| Result | ||
| Boston River | Draw | Progreso |
38.06% ( 0.23) | 27.86% ( 0.05) | 34.08% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 48.08% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.16% ( -0.23) | 57.84% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.44% ( -0.18) | 78.56% ( 0.18) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.6% ( 0.02) | 29.4% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.61% ( 0.03) | 65.39% ( -0.03) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.1% ( -0.31) | 31.9% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.66% ( -0.35) | 68.34% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boston River | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.87% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 2.5% Total : 38.05% | 1-1 @ 13.11% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.85% | 0-1 @ 10.71% 1-2 @ 7.5% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.82% Total : 34.08% |
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