SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for Club Nacional had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Club Nacional win was 0-1 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Racing de Montevideo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Club Nacional |
42.25% ( -0.01) | 27.65% | 30.1% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 47.55% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.04% ( 0.01) | 57.96% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.34% ( 0.01) | 78.66% ( -0) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.91% ( -0) | 27.09% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.52% ( -0) | 62.47% ( 0) |
| Club Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.23% ( 0.01) | 34.77% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.49% ( 0.01) | 71.51% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Club Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 12.3% 2-1 @ 8.49% 2-0 @ 8.03% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.69% 3-0 @ 3.5% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.95% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.94% Total : 42.25% | 1-1 @ 12.99% 0-0 @ 9.42% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0)Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 9.95% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.26% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.42% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0)Other @ 2.18% Total : 30.1% |
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