SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 38.15%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.63%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (11.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Cerro |
38.15% ( -0.11) | 29.37% ( 0) | 32.49% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 43.58% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.74% ( 0) | 63.26% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.35% ( 0) | 82.65% ( -0) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.94% ( -0.07) | 32.06% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.47% ( -0.07) | 68.53% ( 0.08) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.14% ( 0.08) | 35.85% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.37% ( 0.08) | 72.63% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 13.07% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.82% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 2.81% Total : 38.14% | 1-1 @ 13.41% 0-0 @ 11.49% 2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0)Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.36% | 0-1 @ 11.79% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.88% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0)Other @ 2.01% Total : 32.49% |
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