SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 37.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.03%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Benfica in this match.
| Result | ||
| Red Star Belgrade | Draw | Benfica |
37.5% ( 0.16) | 23.84% ( 0.47) | 38.66% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 62.09% ( -1.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.93% ( -2.32) | 40.07% ( 2.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.56% ( -2.44) | 62.43% ( 2.44) |
| Red Star Belgrade Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.51% ( -0.95) | 21.49% ( 0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.47% ( -1.48) | 54.52% ( 1.49) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.07% ( -1.3) | 20.92% ( 1.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.35% ( -2.07) | 53.65% ( 2.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Red Star Belgrade | Draw | Benfica |
| 2-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.53)2-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 4.26% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 2.72% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 37.5% | 1-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.19)0-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.47)3-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.03% ( 0.47)0-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 4.41% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 3.39% ( -0.24)0-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.14)2-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.15)0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.82% Total : 38.66% |
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