SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 36.34%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 36.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for River Plate in this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Cerro |
36.34% ( 1.36) | 27.61% ( 0.48) | 36.05% ( -1.84) |
| Both teams to score 48.99% ( -1.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.23% ( -1.83) | 56.77% ( 1.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.29% ( -1.49) | 77.71% ( 1.49) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.08% ( -0.05) | 29.92% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.98% ( -0.06) | 66.02% ( 0.07) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.91% ( -2) | 30.09% ( 2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.77% ( -2.47) | 66.23% ( 2.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.73) 2-1 @ 7.87% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 6.56% ( 0.43)3-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.39% Total : 36.33% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 9% ( 0.61)2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.6% | 0-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 6.49% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.32)0-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.2)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.35% Total : 36.05% |
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