SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.01%) and 1-2 (7.9%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (11.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | River Plate |
30.38% ( -1.6) | 29.15% ( -0.48) | 40.46% ( 2.08) |
| Both teams to score 43.56% ( 0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37% ( 1.2) | 63% ( -1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.53% ( 0.86) | 82.46% ( -0.86) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.72% ( -0.54) | 37.28% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.93% ( -0.54) | 74.06% ( 0.53) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.46% ( 1.86) | 30.54% ( -1.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.23% ( 2.16) | 66.76% ( -2.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 11.23% ( -0.69) 2-1 @ 6.57% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.43)3-1 @ 2.16% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.77% Total : 30.38% | 1-1 @ 13.32% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 11.38% ( -0.52)2-2 @ 3.9% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.15% | 0-1 @ 13.5% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 8.01% ( 0.45)1-2 @ 7.9% ( 0.33)0-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.33)1-3 @ 3.13% ( 0.28)2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.12)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.14)1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.13)Other @ 1.34% Total : 40.45% |
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