SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 41.64%. A draw had a probability of 30.9% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 27.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.76%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.18%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Cerro |
41.64% ( 0.07) | 30.9% ( -0.03) | 27.46% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 38.17% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.06% ( 0.05) | 68.94% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.45% ( 0.03) | 86.55% ( -0.03) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.08% ( 0.07) | 32.92% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.5% ( 0.07) | 69.5% ( -0.08) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.91% ( -0.01) | 43.09% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.64% ( -0.01) | 79.37% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 15.76% 2-0 @ 8.76% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.15% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.9% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.73% Total : 41.64% | 0-0 @ 14.18% ( -0.03) 1-1 @ 13.26% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.1% ( 0)Other @ 0.34% Total : 30.89% | 0-1 @ 11.94% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.57% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 27.46% |
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