SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Progreso |
29% ( -0.65) | 26.81% ( 0.12) | 44.19% ( 0.52) |
| Both teams to score 49.44% ( -0.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.71% ( -0.75) | 55.28% ( 0.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.49% ( -0.62) | 76.5% ( 0.62) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.81% ( -0.88) | 34.19% ( 0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.12% ( -0.96) | 70.88% ( 0.96) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.13% ( -0.07) | 24.87% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.52% ( -0.1) | 59.47% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 9.13% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.27% Total : 29% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.8% | 0-1 @ 11.83% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 8.23% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.82% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.43% Total : 44.19% |
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