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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 49.02%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 23.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | River Plate |
49.02% ( 0.12) | 27.26% ( -0.01) | 23.72% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 44.23% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40% ( -0.04) | 60% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.76% ( -0.03) | 80.24% ( 0.03) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.37% ( 0.04) | 24.63% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.86% ( 0.05) | 59.14% ( -0.05) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.69% ( -0.12) | 41.31% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.17% ( -0.11) | 77.83% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 14.25% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 8.83% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.12% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.82% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0)Other @ 2.25% Total : 49.01% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.58% Total : 27.25% | 0-1 @ 9% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.21% Total : 23.72% |
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