SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Napoli |
42.03% ( -0.83) | 25.41% ( 0.18) | 32.56% ( 0.65) |
| Both teams to score 55.49% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.78% ( -0.58) | 48.23% ( 0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.62% ( -0.53) | 70.38% ( 0.54) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.17% ( -0.64) | 22.83% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.45% ( -0.96) | 56.56% ( 0.97) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.91% ( 0.14) | 28.09% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.24% ( 0.17) | 63.76% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Roma | Draw | Napoli |
| 1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 7% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.17% Total : 42.03% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.4% | 0-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.78% Total : 32.56% |
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