SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 58.84%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 17.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.04%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Romania | Draw | Northern Ireland |
58.84% ( -0.29) | 23.98% ( 0.13) | 17.19% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 44.13% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.65% ( -0.25) | 55.35% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.44% ( -0.2) | 76.56% ( 0.21) |
| Romania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.38% ( -0.2) | 18.62% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.08% ( -0.34) | 49.92% ( 0.34) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.23% ( 0.06) | 45.77% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.46% ( 0.04) | 81.54% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Romania | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 1-0 @ 14.32% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 12.04% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.41% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.98% Total : 58.83% | 1-1 @ 11.19% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.68% ( -0)Other @ 0.58% Total : 23.97% | 0-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 4.38% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 1.45% Total : 17.19% |
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