Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Sagan Tosu	Draw	Machida Zelvia
28.23% ( 0.43)	26.15% ( 0.44)	45.62% ( -0.87)

Both teams to score 50.95% (

-1.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.88% (

-1.51)

53.12% (

1.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.3% (

-1.29)

74.69% (

1.29)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.36% (

-0.47)

33.63% (

0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.71% (

-0.51)

70.28% (

0.51)

Machida Zelvia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.77% (

-1.04)

23.22% (

1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.86% (

-1.54)

57.13% (

1.54)

Score Analysis

Sagan Tosu 28.23%

Machida Zelvia 45.62%

Draw 26.14%

Sagan Tosu	Draw	Machida Zelvia
1-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 2.46% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.37% Total : 28.23%	1-1 @ 12.42% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 7.81% ( 0.45) 2-2 @ 4.94% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.14%	0-1 @ 11.4% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 9.07% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 8.33% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.41% ( -0.21) 0-3 @ 4.05% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.13) 0-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.86% Total : 45.62%