Despite failing to convert their draws into wins so far this season, St Louis have been a tough nut to crack in MLS, losing just one of their opening 10 games.
Therefore, City should be confident of recording a positive result at CityPark, and considering Chicago's dry spell in front of goal, the hosts are likely to be good enough for maximum points in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 0-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
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