SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 64.76%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 15.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chicago Fire | Draw | St Louis City |
64.76% ( -3.15) | 19.7% ( 0.53) | 15.54% ( 2.62) |
| Both teams to score 53.83% ( 5.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.46% ( 3.39) | 40.54% ( -3.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.07% ( 3.39) | 62.92% ( -3.39) |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.21% ( 0.13) | 11.79% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.01% ( 0.28) | 36.99% ( -0.28) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.03% ( 5.87) | 38.97% ( -5.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.3% ( 5.11) | 75.7% ( -5.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chicago Fire | Draw | St Louis City |
| 2-0 @ 10.5% ( -1.59) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.2)1-0 @ 9.82% ( -1.55)3-0 @ 7.48% ( -1.09)3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.18)4-0 @ 4% ( -0.56)4-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.57)4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.31)5-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.23)5-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.82% Total : 64.76% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.77)0-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.75)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.31)Other @ 0.14% Total : 19.7% | 1-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.71) 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.32)2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.43)1-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.39)Other @ 1.97% Total : 15.54% |
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