Chicago have been struggling to find their best form this season and are coming off a very poor display against Atlanta last weekend. They now have to face a Houston side that are unbeaten in their last four in all competitions, are riding a three-match winning streak and will be brimming with confidence after their comeback win against the Earthquakes.
We fancy the hosts to get on the board here but feel that the visitors will outscore them by the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 47.03%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
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