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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Louis City | Draw | Portland Timbers |
40.96% ( -0.55) | 24.46% ( 0.15) | 34.58% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 59.37% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.56% ( -0.6) | 43.44% ( 0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.17% ( -0.59) | 65.83% ( 0.59) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.71% ( -0.51) | 21.28% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.78% ( -0.79) | 54.21% ( 0.79) |
| Portland Timbers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.42% ( -0.05) | 24.58% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.93% ( -0.07) | 59.07% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Louis City | Draw | Portland Timbers |
| 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.64% Total : 40.96% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.17% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.45% | 1-2 @ 7.97% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 3.73% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.78% Total : 34.58% |
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