Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
0.41) 
-0.48) 
