SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 45.83%. A win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 27.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Saudi Arabia win was 1-0 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Nigeria |
27.63% ( -1.28) | 26.54% ( -0.45) | 45.83% ( 1.73) |
| Both teams to score 49.4% ( 0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.06% ( 1.08) | 54.93% ( -1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.78% ( 0.89) | 76.22% ( -0.88) |
| Saudi Arabia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.92% ( -0.43) | 35.07% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.18% ( -0.45) | 71.82% ( 0.45) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.09% ( 1.33) | 23.91% ( -1.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.87% ( 1.87) | 58.12% ( -1.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.48) 2-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.31)3-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.1% Total : 27.63% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( -0.36)2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.53% | 0-1 @ 12% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.99% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 8.58% ( 0.3)1-3 @ 4.29% ( 0.26)0-3 @ 4.09% ( 0.29)2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.15)0-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.16)Other @ 2.63% Total : 45.84% |
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