SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Sierra Leone win was 1-0 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sierra Leone | Draw | Nigeria |
35.04% ( -0.65) | 28.4% ( -0.32) | 36.56% ( 0.97) |
| Both teams to score 46.59% ( 0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.28% ( 1.12) | 59.72% ( -1.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.97% ( 0.85) | 80.03% ( -0.85) |
| Sierra Leone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.77% ( 0.15) | 32.23% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.28% ( 0.17) | 68.72% ( -0.17) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.75% ( 1.19) | 31.25% ( -1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.4% ( 1.37) | 67.6% ( -1.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sierra Leone | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 11.4% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.75% Total : 35.03% | 1-1 @ 13.26% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 10.07% ( -0.43)2-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.39% | 0-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.11)Other @ 3% Total : 36.56% |
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