SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 90.19%. A draw had a probability of 7.5% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 2.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 3-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.08%) and 4-0 (11.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.48%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (1.09%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nigeria | Draw | Sao Tome & Principe |
90.19% ( -0.1) | 7.51% ( 0.16) | 2.3% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 31.3% ( -1.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.55% ( -1.48) | 30.45% ( 1.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.27% ( -1.79) | 51.74% ( 1.8) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.91% ( -0.24) | 4.1% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 82.81% ( -0.79) | 17.19% ( 0.8) |
| Sao Tome & Principe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 32.64% ( -1.51) | 67.36% ( 1.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 6.02% ( -0.61) | 93.98% ( 0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nigeria | Draw | Sao Tome & Principe |
| 3-0 @ 15% ( 0.41) 2-0 @ 14.08% ( 0.64)4-0 @ 11.98% ( 0.1)1-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.56)5-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.17)2-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 4.73% ( -0.23)6-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.13)5-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.21)7-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.1)6-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.15)3-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.74% Total : 90.18% | 1-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 2.76% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.17% Total : 7.51% | 0-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.21% Total : 2.3% |
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