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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2023 at 5pm UK
Teslim Balogun Stadium
ST
Nigeria
6 - 0
Sao Tome
Osimhen (13', 69' pen., 79'), Lookman (27'), Awoniyi (51'), Chukwueze (84')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Soares Vaz Ramos (11')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-3 Nigeria
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Wednesday, June 14 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Nigeria 5-0 Sao Tome & Principe

Nigeria hammered Sao Tome & Principe 10-0 in the reverse fixture back in June 2022 and the Selecao are in for another gruesome 90 minutes against a star-studded Super Eagles side. Sao Tome's form is currently nothing to write home about and we see the three-time African champions coming away with another huge victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 90.19%. A draw had a probability of 7.5% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 2.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 3-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.08%) and 4-0 (11.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.48%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (1.09%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
NigeriaDrawSao Tome & Principe
90.19% (-0.10300000000001 -0.1) 7.51% (0.156 0.16) 2.3% (-0.047 -0.05)
Both teams to score 31.3% (-1.535 -1.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.55% (-1.478 -1.48)30.45% (1.484 1.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.27% (-1.79 -1.79)51.74% (1.796 1.8)
Nigeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
95.91% (-0.241 -0.24)4.1% (0.248 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
82.81% (-0.79299999999999 -0.79)17.19% (0.799 0.8)
Sao Tome & Principe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
32.64% (-1.512 -1.51)67.36% (1.517 1.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
6.02% (-0.6149 -0.61)93.98% (0.622 0.62)
Score Analysis
    Nigeria 90.18%
    Sao Tome & Principe 2.3%
    Draw 7.51%
NigeriaDrawSao Tome & Principe
3-0 @ 15% (0.41 0.41)
2-0 @ 14.08% (0.64 0.64)
4-0 @ 11.98% (0.1 0.1)
1-0 @ 8.82% (0.561 0.56)
5-0 @ 7.66% (-0.088 -0.09)
3-1 @ 5.93% (-0.174 -0.17)
2-1 @ 5.57% (-0.053999999999999 -0.05)
4-1 @ 4.73% (-0.233 -0.23)
6-0 @ 4.08% (-0.127 -0.13)
5-1 @ 3.03% (-0.211 -0.21)
7-0 @ 1.86% (-0.096 -0.1)
6-1 @ 1.61% (-0.145 -0.15)
3-2 @ 1.17% (-0.104 -0.1)
4-2 @ 0.94% (-0.103 -0.1)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 90.18%
1-1 @ 3.48% (0.033 0.03)
0-0 @ 2.76% (0.225 0.23)
2-2 @ 1.1% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 7.51%
0-1 @ 1.09% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 1.21%
Total : 2.3%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-3 Nigeria
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Nigeria 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Friday, March 24 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Portugal 4-0 Nigeria
Thursday, November 17 at 6.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Costa Rica 2-0 Nigeria
Thursday, November 10 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Algeria 2-1 Nigeria
Tuesday, September 27 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Wednesday, June 14 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-2 Sierra Leone
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-2 Sao Tome
Wednesday, March 22 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-10 Nigeria
Monday, June 13 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 5-1 Sao Tome
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

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