SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 33.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.8%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 1-2 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
43.49% ( 0.03) | 23.09% ( 0) | 33.42% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 64.09% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.88% ( -0.02) | 37.12% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.68% ( -0.02) | 59.31% ( 0.02) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.44% ( 0.01) | 17.55% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.9% ( 0.01) | 48.09% ( -0.01) |
| ADO Den Haag Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.73% ( -0.03) | 22.26% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.29% ( -0.04) | 55.71% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
| 2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.15% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.68% 4-0 @ 1.49% ( 0)Other @ 4.02% Total : 43.49% | 1-1 @ 10.21% 2-2 @ 6.68% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.94% ( -0)Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 7.67% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.87% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.41% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.84% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.34% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0)Other @ 3.37% Total : 33.42% |
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