SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 41.06%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.96%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | NEC |
35.42% ( 0.12) | 23.52% ( 0.22) | 41.06% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 63.03% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.26% ( -1.09) | 38.74% ( 1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.96% ( -1.16) | 61.04% ( 1.16) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.05% ( -0.44) | 21.95% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.77% ( -0.67) | 55.23% ( 0.67) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.75% ( -0.6) | 19.24% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.04% ( -1) | 50.96% ( 1) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | NEC |
| 2-1 @ 8% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.05% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 2.59% Total : 35.42% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.21)3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 8.7% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.96% ( 0.23)0-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 3.62% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.97% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.36% Total : 41.06% |
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