SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 58.31%. A win for Sirius had a probability of 20.98% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.2%) and 0-1 (7.8%). The likeliest Sirius win was 2-1 (5.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sirius | Draw | Malmo |
20.98% ( 0.02) | 20.72% ( 0.03) | 58.31% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 61.13% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.97% ( -0.1) | 36.03% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.87% ( -0.11) | 58.13% ( 0.11) |
| Sirius Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.62% ( -0.04) | 30.38% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.43% ( -0.05) | 66.57% ( 0.05) |
| Malmo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.81% ( -0.04) | 12.19% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.15% ( -0.09) | 37.85% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sirius | Draw | Malmo |
| 2-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.2% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 2.85% Total : 20.98% | 1-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0)Other @ 0.28% Total : 20.72% | 1-2 @ 9.77% ( 0) 0-2 @ 8.2% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 6.85% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.75% ( -0)2-3 @ 4.08% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 3.61% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 3.03% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)2-5 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.38% Total : 58.31% |
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