SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ukraine | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Romania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 92.98%. A draw had a probability of 5.5% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 3-0 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (13.38%) and 2-0 (12.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.55%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovakia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Slovakia | Draw | San Marino |
92.98% ( 0.04) | 5.54% ( -0.03) | 1.47% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 28.42% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.17% ( 0.06) | 25.83% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54% ( 0.08) | 46% ( -0.08) |
| Slovakia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.04% ( 0.01) | 2.96% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 86.62% ( 0.05) | 13.38% ( -0.05) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 29.28% ( -0.07) | 70.71% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 4.78% ( -0.02) | 95.22% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Slovakia | Draw | San Marino |
| 3-0 @ 15.21% 4-0 @ 13.38% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 12.96% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 4.64% ( -0)2-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 3.27% ( 0)7-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.02)6-1 @ 1.92% ( 0)8-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)7-1 @ 0.96% ( 0)3-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.62% Total : 92.97% | 1-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.89% Total : 5.54% | Other @ 1.47% Total : 1.47% |
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