SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 37.06%. A win for Slovakia had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Slovakia win was 1-0 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Slovakia | Draw | Austria |
35.15% ( -0.19) | 27.8% ( 0.01) | 37.06% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 48.38% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.48% ( -0.06) | 57.52% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.69% ( -0.04) | 78.31% ( 0.04) |
| Slovakia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.96% ( -0.15) | 31.04% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.65% ( -0.18) | 67.35% ( 0.18) |
| Austria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.15% ( 0.08) | 29.85% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.07% ( 0.1) | 65.93% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Slovakia | Draw | Austria |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.04% Total : 35.14% | 1-1 @ 13.1% 0-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.79% | 0-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.92% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.87% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.05% |
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