Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 40.52%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.
