SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 7 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Italy | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Italy had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ukraine | Draw | Italy |
42.2% ( -0.49) | 26.26% ( 0.12) | 31.53% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 52.3% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.82% ( -0.38) | 52.17% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.11% ( -0.33) | 73.89% ( 0.33) |
| Ukraine Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.52% ( -0.41) | 24.48% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.07% ( -0.58) | 58.93% ( 0.58) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.25% ( 0.06) | 30.74% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.99% ( 0.07) | 67% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ukraine | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 7.45% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.64% Total : 42.2% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.26% | 0-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.06% Total : 31.53% |
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