SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 39%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Atletico Mineiro |
39% ( -0.88) | 26.63% ( -0.1) | 34.37% ( 0.98) |
| Both teams to score 51.95% ( 0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.01% ( 0.56) | 52.99% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.41% ( 0.48) | 74.58% ( -0.47) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.45% ( -0.22) | 26.54% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.25% ( -0.3) | 61.75% ( 0.3) |
| Atletico Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.72% ( 0.91) | 29.28% ( -0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.76% ( 1.1) | 65.24% ( -1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Atletico Mineiro |
| 1-0 @ 10.3% ( -0.3) 2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 3.02% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.21% Total : 38.99% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.78% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.51% Total : 34.37% |
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