While Sao Paulo have struggled for goals and results recently, they should muster enough chances to nick one against a Vasco side with the leakiest rearguard in the Brasileiro, thus seeing the away side extend their undefeated run against their opponents to six matches in all competitions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 49.77%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 25.22% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.95%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
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