Villarreal have won each of their last eight Europa League home games, and we think that they will continue that impressive record by claiming a narrow win over a Panathinaikos side that have taken just a point from their two away group games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Panathinaikos had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Panathinaikos win was 1-2 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.

Result
Villarreal	Draw	Panathinaikos
38.34% ( 0.02)	24.54% ( -0)	37.12% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 59.46% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.53% (

43.47% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.13%

65.87%

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.42% (

0.01)

22.58% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.82% (

0.02)

56.18% (

-0.02)

Panathinaikos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.79% (

-0.01)

23.21% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.89% (

-0.02)

57.11% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Villarreal 38.34%

Panathinaikos 37.12%

Draw 24.54%

Villarreal	Draw	Panathinaikos
2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.8% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.8% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.88% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 38.34%	1-1 @ 11.39% 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.24% 3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.54%	1-2 @ 8.32% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.65% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.59% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.05% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.72% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.48% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.1% 0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 37.12%