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La Liga | Gameweek 12
Nov 5, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
AB

Villarreal
2 - 3
Athletic Bilbao

Moreno (86'), Sorloth (87')
Gabbia (19'), Albiol (72'), Mandi (74'), Femenia (76')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Ruiz de Galarreta (2'), Williams (22'), Williams (30')
Williams (41'), de Marcos (44'), Garcia (89'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Chiclana 0-5 Villarreal
Thursday, November 2 at 6pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Rubi 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Wednesday, November 1 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey

We said: Villarreal 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

Five of the last nine La Liga meetings between these two teams have finished level, and we are expecting the points to be shared once again this weekend. Villarreal have shown improvement in recent weeks, but Athletic are a strong side, and the two teams could play out a low-scoring draw here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 37.44% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
VillarrealDrawAthletic Bilbao
37.44% (0.076000000000001 0.08) 25.05% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 37.5% (-0.067 -0.07)
Both teams to score 57.59% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.12% (0.039000000000001 0.04)45.86% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.81% (0.036999999999999 0.04)68.18% (-0.036999999999992 -0.04)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.87% (0.057999999999993 0.06)24.12% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.57% (0.082000000000001 0.08)58.42% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.9% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)24.09% (0.02 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.62% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)58.37% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 37.44%
    Athletic Bilbao 37.5%
    Draw 25.05%
VillarrealDrawAthletic Bilbao
2-1 @ 8.36% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.26% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 5.88% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.96% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.82% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.79% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.41% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1% (0.0039999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 0.99% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 37.44%
1-1 @ 11.76%
2-2 @ 5.95% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-0 @ 5.81% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.34% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.05%
1-2 @ 8.37% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
0-1 @ 8.27% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.89% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.97% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.82%
0-3 @ 2.79% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.41% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-4 @ 1.01%
0-4 @ 0.99% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 37.5%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Chiclana 0-5 Villarreal
Thursday, November 2 at 6pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Granada 2-3 Villarreal
Monday, October 30 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Villarreal 1-1 Alaves
Sunday, October 22 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Villarreal 1-2 Las Palmas
Sunday, October 8 at 1pm in La Liga
Last Game: Villarreal 1-0 Rennes
Thursday, October 5 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Getafe 0-0 Villarreal
Saturday, September 30 at 1pm in La Liga
Last Game: Rubi 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Wednesday, November 1 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Valencia
Sunday, October 29 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Barcelona 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, October 22 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 3-0 Almeria
Friday, October 6 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Sociedad 3-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, September 30 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Getafe
Wednesday, September 27 at 6pm in La Liga


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