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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.9%) and 2-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Macarthur |
47.72% ( 0.04) | 21.2% ( 0.31) | 31.07% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 70.21% ( -1.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.3% ( -1.78) | 28.7% ( 1.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.39% ( -2.22) | 49.6% ( 2.21) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.18% ( -0.64) | 12.81% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.86% ( -1.33) | 39.14% ( 1.33) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.52% ( -1.06) | 19.47% ( 1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.66% ( -1.76) | 51.33% ( 1.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 5.9% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.3)1-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.41)3-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.15)4-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.13)5-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.39% Total : 47.72% | 1-1 @ 8.39% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.25)Other @ 0.63% Total : 21.2% | 1-2 @ 6.86% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 4.08% ( 0.29)2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.08)3-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.2% Total : 31.07% |
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