SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 47.37%. A win for Western United had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.83%) and 0-1 (5.59%). The likeliest Western United win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
31.02% ( 0.41) | 21.61% ( 0.03) | 47.37% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 68.58% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.2% ( 0.09) | 30.79% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.86% ( 0.11) | 52.14% ( -0.11) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.46% ( 0.27) | 20.53% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.96% ( 0.42) | 53.04% ( -0.43) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.29% ( -0.11) | 13.7% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.06% ( -0.22) | 40.93% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 7.01% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.7% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.92% Total : 31.02% | 1-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.97% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.54% Total : 21.61% | 1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.83% ( -0.05)0-1 @ 5.59% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 4.62% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.9% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 2.29% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.04)3-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)2-5 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 3% Total : 47.37% |
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